Application of neural networks to forecast the number of road accidents in provinces in Poland.

Many people die on the streets every year. Year after year this number is decreasing, but there are still a lot of them. Although COVID-19 has reduced the number of traffic accidents, this figure is still very high. For this reason, in order to identify the federal states with the highest number of traffic accidents and to do everything possible to minimize the analytical value and improve road safety, we will develop accident forecasts for the next few years. Need to know. The author's aim is to predict the number of road accidents by state in Poland, but this has not been done for many years. For this purpose, monthly data from police statistics on the number of traffic accidents by state in Poland were analyzed. Based on this data, a forecast of the number of traffic accidents in the next years from 2022 to 2024 was created in Statistica. A selected neural network model was used to predict the number of traffic accidents. The results show that a reduction in the number of traffic accidents on Polish roads can still be expected, but the prevalent COVID-19 confounds the results obtained. The choice of number of samples (training, testing, and validation) affects the results obtained.

FORECASTING THE ROAD ACCIDENT RATE AND THE IMPACT OF THE COVID 19 ON ITS FREQUENCY IN THE POLISH PROVINCES

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected the development of road transport, not only in Poland, but also worldwide. Limited mobility, especially at the beginning of the pandemic, had a large impact on the number of road accidents. The aim of the present study is to predict the number of road accidents in Poland and to assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on variability of the number of road accidents. To attain the objective, annual data on the road accidents for every province in Poland were collected and analysed. Based on historical crash data, obtained from the police, the number of road accidents was forecasted for both pandemic and non-pandemic scenarios. Selected time series models and exponential models were used to forecast the number of accidents. [ FROM AUTHOR]

IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON CAR-SHARING IN POLAND

The number of cars on Polish roads is increasing year by year. Currently, Poland is in second place in Europe in terms of the number of cars per 1000 inhabitants [1]. This causes problems in finding a place to park. In addition, during the pandemic, there was a problem with semis, which caused a sharp increase in the price of used cars and longer waiting times for new vehicles. The aim of this article is to find out the opinion of Polish residents on the Car-Sharing service during the CoVID-19 pandemic and how the pandemic has affected Car-Sharing not only in Poland, but also in Europe as a whole. For this purpose, a survey was conducted. The research found that about 8% of people in Poland use the Car-Sharing service and that the pandemic had little impact on how this service was used. If someone needed to use this service, the pandemic was not an obstacle for them. [ FROM AUTHOR]

CHANGE IN THE MOBILITY OF POLISH RESIDENTS DURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

The aim of the article is to analyze the mobility of Polish residents and a change caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. For this purpose, a questionnaire study was conducted on changes in the mobility of Polish residents before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. It was carried out in December 2020, when the second wave of cases of the above-mentioned virus was ongoing in Poland. During the study of Polish residents, questions were asked about the purpose of their trip, means of transport, distance to the destination and duration of the trip, as well as the place of making purchases before and during the pandemic. In addition, respondents were asked whether the COVID-19 pandemic had affected their mobility. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the mobility of citizens, especially in the cities, has changed. Instead of using the public transport, they used cars, bicycles and walk. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Komunikácie is the property of University of Zilina and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all s.)